Steady Growth Ahead: WGBI Webinar Breaks Down the Transportation Market Forecast
The Numbers Behind the Wheel
On August 11, 2026, the Women in the Global Battery Industry (WGBI) hosted a webinar on the Transportation Market Update & Forecast, featuring Matt Jensen, Director of Consumer & Category Insights at Clarios. Moderated by Susan Bernard, WGBI’s Director, the session revisited a presentation Jensen had given to BCI’s full convention audience in Nashville earlier this year, giving members who couldn’t attend convention a chance to hear the data firsthand. As Bernard put it in her introduction, “I think this is Wig B’s fourth or fifth webinar of the year. And this is a webinar that we did last year as well after the convention and went over well.”
Jensen opened by noting his role leading Clarios’ category management team and explained the scope of his presentation: “I will be presenting the transportation Market forecast that was presented that I presented in May in Nashville for the BCI convention.” The agenda covered three parts: a look back at 2025 performance by segment, an assessment of ongoing technology shifts, and BCI’s member-aggregated three-year forecast.
2025 in Review: A Softer Year, Driven by OE
Jensen’s data showed total North American shipments — OE and aftermarket combined — landed at roughly 150 million batteries, slightly down from the prior year. He attributed the decline largely to weather: “I would say from a weather aspect last year we were copying two really, really strong, insanely hot summers. We didn’t have as much of that last year as we did the prior two years.”
OE shipments fell about 6% year-over-year, with automotive and heavy duty as the primary drags. Jensen noted automotive OE volumes came in well below earlier projections: “I think they were forecasting more in the, you know, 16 million mark, kind of the pre-COVID levels. And we didn’t we didn’t see that come to fruition.” The aftermarket, by contrast, grew about half a percent, powered by automotive gains of roughly 700,000 units. Lawn and garden and golf both softened, which Jensen linked to slow housing starts and a “right-sizing” of prior-year shipment swings.
Powertrain and Technology Shifts
Looking at vehicle production forecasts by powertrain, Jensen described a market that has cooled from the rapid EV growth once anticipated. “If you look at like the 23, 24 and 25, we’ve essentially plateaued a little bit. And the growth is is much slower than they had been anticipating, I would say a year to two years ago, that was more of a hockey stick growth with the fully electric vehicles.” Instead, he pointed to hybrids absorbing much of that growth, calling it “the more logical transition that the consumer is going to take is to go from a fully, you know, Ice vehicle to a hybrid where they still have their, you know, the reliability of the of the internal combustible engine, along with some of the benefits of, you know, of an electric powertrain.”
AGM technology continues to anchor growth across segments. Jensen highlighted strong two-year gains — 15% in OE shipments and 28% in the aftermarket — with automotive remaining the primary driver, and he expects roughly 60% of new light-duty vehicles to continue shipping with AGM batteries.
How the Forecast Held Up
A distinguishing feature of BCI’s process, Jensen explained, is that the three-year outlook reflects an aggregated, median view across member companies rather than his own or Clarios’ projections. Comparing last year’s member forecast to actual 2025 results, he walked through the gaps segment by segment. Golf showed the widest swing — members had expected growth, but Jensen cautioned that shipment data may not reflect true sell-through: “I can confidently say from a point of sale aspect, the golf market is not up 6%. So it could be, you know, it could be a inventory play within the market as well to to get that up to 6%.”
Marine outperformed forecasts, which Jensen tied to a wave of pandemic-era boat and RV purchases now reaching replacement age, while powersports underperformed, a shift he attributed to tariff-driven inventory caution given how import-heavy that segment is.
Looking Ahead: 2026-2028
Members are forecasting roughly 2% total market growth through 2028, adding about 10 million units of shipments. AGM remains the standout, expected to carry automotive from 106 million to 113 million units, even as SLI continues a gradual decline. Jensen noted lithium’s footprint remains small but is expanding in select applications, particularly marine, RV, and powersports, where non-traditional battery sizes are starting to appear in unexpected places. “A great example is going to be you ones are being used now, which is a lawn and garden group size are being used in power sport applications like like TVs are starting to utilize ones as well.”
Golf carts remain a technology story of their own, with lithium adoption accelerating alongside a wave of new entrants: “We saw a lot of foreign overseas, primarily Chinese nameplates come into the market. I think over 30 different brand nameplates came into the US market that are all primarily lithium based golf carts.”
Closing on a Note of Fundamentals
Jensen closed by acknowledging 2025’s softness while pointing to durable long-term drivers: “Members are forecasting growth through 2028. We continue to see the vehicles in operation grow year over year.” He added that batteries in operation are growing even faster than vehicles in operation, as multi-battery and paired-battery systems become more common with continued electrification.